This post is part of the foundation for the future being assembled here. It shows, in one simple to read location, the official S&P 500 P/E and EPS ratio's for their popular equity market index. Here is a link to an interesting description of the S&P 500 ratio's from two fund managers who wrote the piece for Barron's titled "
What's the Real P/E Ratio?". In that article the author's make the observation that
"There are two main earnings numbers that Wall Street uses when discussing valuations -- "reported earnings" or "operating earnings." Typically, the bulls use "operating earnings," and the bears use "reported earnings" because operating earnings are higher and reported earnings are lower." Please don't believe it is that simple. Read their article and then you will be able to understand the differences found between the two styles in 2008, seen below. Another brief description of some terms used can be found in the previous post titled
S&P 500 Price/Earning Ratios. Below the break readers will see estimated earnings per share data followed by the actual P/E and EPS ratio's for the past ten years.
|
| OPERATING |
| AS REPORTED |
|
| EARNINGS |
| EARNINGS |
|
| P/E |
| P/E |
|
| (ests are |
| (ests are |
|
| bottom up) |
| top down) |
| ESTIMATES |
|
|
|
|
| 12/31/2011 |
| 12.64 |
| 16.38 |
| 09/30/2011 |
| 13.20 |
| 16.80 |
| 06/30/2011 |
| 13.77 |
| 17.37 |
| 03/30/2011 |
| 14.43 |
| 18.21 |
| 12/31/2010 |
| 15.14 |
| 19.04 |
| 09/30/2010 |
| 16.03 |
| 19.22 |
| 06/30/2010 |
| 17.11 |
| 19.46 |
| 03/31/2010 |
| 18.50 |
| 19.95 |
|
| OPERATING |
| AS REPORTED |
|
| EARNINGS |
| EARNINGS |
|
| PER SHR |
| PER SHR |
|
| (ests are |
| (ests are |
|
| bottom up) |
| top down) |
| ESTIMATES |
|
|
|
|
| 12/31/2011 |
| $25.50 |
| $17.56 |
| 09/30/2011 |
| $24.17 |
| $17.86 |
| 06/30/2011 |
| $22.89 |
| $18.11 |
| 03/30/2011 |
| $20.99 |
| $18.67 |
| 12/31/2010 |
| $21.52 |
| $15.76 |
| 09/30/2010 |
| $20.45 |
| $15.52 |
| 06/30/2010 |
| $18.99 |
| $15.00 |
| 03/31/2010 |
| $17.16 |
| $15.81 |
|
| OPERATING |
| AS REPORTED |
|
| EARNINGS |
| EARNINGS |
|
| P/E |
| P/E |
|
| (ests are |
| (ests are |
|
| bottom up) |
| top down) |
| ACTUAL |
|
|
|
|
| 12/31/2009 |
| 19.61 |
| 21.88 |
| 09/30/2009 |
| 26.69 |
| 84.30 |
| 06/30/2009 |
| 23.10 |
| 122.41 |
| 03/31/2009 |
| 18.56 |
| 116.31 |
| 12/31/2008 |
| 18.24 |
| 60.70 |
| 09/30/2008 |
| 17.99 |
| 25.38 |
| 06/30/2008 |
| 18.36 |
| 24.92 |
| 03/31/2008 |
| 17.23 |
| 21.90 |
| 12/31/2007 |
| 17.79 |
| 22.19 |
| 09/30/2007 |
| 17.09 |
| 19.42 |
| 06/30/2007 |
| 16.44 |
| 17.70 |
| 03/31/2007 |
| 15.90 |
| 17.09 |
| 12/31/2006 |
| 16.17 |
| 17.40 |
| 09/30/2006 |
| 15.55 |
| 17.00 |
| 06/30/2006 |
| 15.54 |
| 17.05 |
| 03/31/2006 |
| 16.35 |
| 17.82 |
| 12/31/2005 |
| 16.33 |
| 17.85 |
| 09/30/2005 |
| 16.56 |
| 18.46 |
| 06/30/2005 |
| 16.49 |
| 18.80 |
| 03/31/2005 |
| 16.91 |
| 19.57 |
| 12/31/2004 |
| 17.91 |
| 20.70 |
| 09/30/2004 |
| 17.25 |
| 19.29 |
| 06/30/2004 |
| 18.36 |
| 20.32 |
| 03/31/2004 |
| 19.39 |
| 21.66 |
| 12/31/2003 |
| 20.33 |
| 22.81 |
| 09/30/2003 |
| 19.25 |
| 25.82 |
| 06/30/2003 |
| 19.91 |
| 28.21 |
| 03/31/2003 |
| 17.79 |
| 27.97 |
| 12/31/2002 |
| 19.11 |
| 31.89 |
| 09/30/2002 |
| 18.52 |
| 27.14 |
| 06/30/2002 |
| 23.80 |
| 37.02 |
| 03/31/2002 |
| 29.44 |
| 46.45 |
| 12/31/2001 |
| 29.55 |
| 46.50 |
| 09/30/2001 |
| 24.77 |
| 36.77 |
| 06/30/2001 |
| 26.03 |
| 33.28 |
| 03/31/2001 |
| 21.94 |
| 25.54 |
| 12/31/2000 |
| 23.52 |
| 26.41 |
| 09/30/2000 |
| 25.30 |
| 26.75 |
| 06/30/2000 |
| 26.17 |
| 28.02 |
| 03/31/2000 |
| 27.79 |
| 29.41 |
| 12/31/1999 |
| 28.43 |
| 30.50 |
| 09/30/1999 |
| 25.98 |
| 29.18 |
| 06/30/1999 |
| 29.29 |
| 33.46 |
| 03/31/1999 |
| 28.54 |
| 33.52 |
|
| OPERATING |
| AS REPORTED |
|
| EARNINGS |
| EARNINGS |
|
| PER SHR |
| PER SHR |
|
| (ests are |
| (ests are |
|
| bottom up) |
| top down) |
| ACTUAL |
|
|
|
|
| 12/31/2009 |
| $17.16 |
| $15.18 |
| 09/30/2009 |
| $15.78 |
| $14.76 |
| 06/30/2009 |
| $13.81 |
| $13.51 |
| 03/31/2009 |
| $10.11 |
| $7.52 |
| 12/31/2008 |
| -$0.09 |
| -$23.25 |
| 09/30/2008 |
| $15.96 |
| $9.73 |
| 06/30/2008 |
| $17.02 |
| $12.86 |
| 03/31/2008 |
| $16.62 |
| $15.54 |
| 12/31/2007 |
| $15.22 |
| $7.82 |
| 09/30/2007 |
| $20.87 |
| $15.15 |
| 06/30/2007 |
| $24.06 |
| $21.88 |
| 03/31/2007 |
| $22.39 |
| $21.33 |
| 12/31/2006 |
| $21.99 |
| $20.24 |
| 09/30/2006 |
| $23.03 |
| $21.47 |
| 06/30/2006 |
| $21.95 |
| $20.11 |
| 03/31/2006 |
| $20.75 |
| $19.69 |
| 12/31/2005 |
| $20.19 |
| $17.30 |
| 09/30/2005 |
| $18.84 |
| $17.39 |
| 06/30/2005 |
| $19.42 |
| $18.29 |
| 03/31/2005 |
| $18.00 |
| $16.95 |
| 12/31/2004 |
| $17.95 |
| $13.94 |
| 09/30/2004 |
| $16.88 |
| $14.18 |
| 06/30/2004 |
| $16.98 |
| $15.25 |
| 03/31/2004 |
| $15.87 |
| $15.18 |
| 12/31/2003 |
| $14.88 |
| $13.16 |
| 09/30/2003 |
| $14.41 |
| $12.56 |
| 06/30/2003 |
| $12.92 |
| $11.10 |
| 03/31/2003 |
| $12.48 |
| $11.92 |
| 12/31/2002 |
| $11.94 |
| $3.00 |
| 09/30/2002 |
| $11.61 |
| $8.53 |
| 06/30/2002 |
| $11.64 |
| $6.87 |
| 03/31/2002 |
| $10.85 |
| $9.19 |
| 12/31/2001 |
| $9.94 |
| $5.45 |
| 09/30/2001 |
| $9.16 |
| $5.23 |
| 06/30/2001 |
| $9.02 |
| $4.83 |
| 03/31/2001 |
| $10.73 |
| $9.18 |
| 12/31/2000 |
| $13.11 |
| $9.07 |
| 09/30/2000 |
| $14.17 |
| $13.71 |
| 06/30/2000 |
| $14.88 |
| $13.48 |
| 03/31/2000 |
| $13.97 |
| $13.74 |
| 12/31/1999 |
| $13.77 |
| $12.77 |
| 09/30/1999 |
| $12.97 |
| $11.93 |
| 06/30/1999 |
| $13.21 |
| $12.51 |
| 03/31/1999 |
| $11.73 |
| $10.96 |