It has been a while since I have shown you the
checklist associated with K-wave winter. We can all tend to forget
things so I have again included this checklist from David Knox Barker’s
book The K- Wave.
“Global Stock Markets Enter Extended Bear
Markets”
I have said since 2007 that this is where we are, and ever since the 2009 low I have explained that we have been in a bear market rally. The Phase II decline is out there and it will be global in nature.
I'll agree, we are in the middle of a secular bear market.
I have said since 2007 that this is where we are, and ever since the 2009 low I have explained that we have been in a bear market rally. The Phase II decline is out there and it will be global in nature.
I'll agree, we are in the middle of a secular bear market.
“Trends During Winter: Stocks Down, Bonds
Up, Commodities Down”
I believe that the bust in commodities in 2008 was associated with this trend change and that since the 2009 lows, commodities have also been in bear market rallies.
Agree, so far. Once the world markets reach their sustainable price, commodities could be the outperforming sector. Precious metal, water and energy in particular.
I believe that the bust in commodities in 2008 was associated with this trend change and that since the 2009 lows, commodities have also been in bear market rallies.
Agree, so far. Once the world markets reach their sustainable price, commodities could be the outperforming sector. Precious metal, water and energy in particular.
“Interest Rates Spike In Early Winter Then
Decline Throughout”
In June 2004 the Discount rate was at 2.00%. By June 2006 it was at 6.25%, and in August 2007 the Fed once again began to cut the Discount rate. This too fits.
The mother of all interest rate crises is sleeping now and I'm hoping it snoozes for a couple of years more. It has the potential to make the rates of the 1975-83 period seem tame. "So tell me punk, are you feeling lucky?"
In June 2004 the Discount rate was at 2.00%. By June 2006 it was at 6.25%, and in August 2007 the Fed once again began to cut the Discount rate. This too fits.
The mother of all interest rate crises is sleeping now and I'm hoping it snoozes for a couple of years more. It has the potential to make the rates of the 1975-83 period seem tame. "So tell me punk, are you feeling lucky?"
“Economic Growth Slow or Negative During
Much of Winter”
I doubt that many will argue this point at this time.
Agree
I doubt that many will argue this point at this time.
Agree
“Commercial and Residential Real Estate
Prices Fall”
This obviously began back in 2006 and is still ongoing.
Agree. I expect another wave of weakness.
This obviously began back in 2006 and is still ongoing.
Agree. I expect another wave of weakness.
“Bankruptcies Accelerate and High Debt
Eliminated by Bankruptcy”
This has obviously begun and was no doubt been related to the housing and credit bubbles. But I suspect it will worsen as the Phase II decline and the deflationary forces take hold once again.
Agree. Inflation is more efficient and will be the tool used to deal with our debt problem.
This has obviously begun and was no doubt been related to the housing and credit bubbles. But I suspect it will worsen as the Phase II decline and the deflationary forces take hold once again.
Agree. Inflation is more efficient and will be the tool used to deal with our debt problem.
“Social Upheaval and Society Becomes
Negative”
Just wait!
Little sign of real upheaval so far. The Tea Party organized and is being polite. Optimism is still abundant.
Just wait!
Little sign of real upheaval so far. The Tea Party organized and is being polite. Optimism is still abundant.
“Banking System Shaken and New One
Introduced”
The banking system was shaken in 2008, but there should still be more to come.
Agree. There will be a new look within five years.
The banking system was shaken in 2008, but there should still be more to come.
Agree. There will be a new look within five years.
“Free Market System Blamed and Socialist
Solutions Offered”
Just wait, we have only seen the beginning!
Cambodians are saying, deja vu! Our government is now seen as the solution for everything, and it has it's own military. Just saying...
Just wait, we have only seen the beginning!
Cambodians are saying, deja vu! Our government is now seen as the solution for everything, and it has it's own military. Just saying...
“National Fascist Political Tendencies”
More to come.
Can I remain in my denial mode?
More to come.
Can I remain in my denial mode?
“Debt Level Very Low After Defaults and
Bankruptcy”
This has not happened.
Agree. There will be 'start again' period.
This has not happened.
Agree. There will be 'start again' period.
“Trade Conflict Worsen”
It’s coming.
Same timing as real social upheaval.
It’s coming.
Same timing as real social upheaval.
“View of the Future at a Low Ebb”
When the cheerleading on CNBS stops, we will be there.
Same timing as real social upheaval.
When the cheerleading on CNBS stops, we will be there.
Same timing as real social upheaval.
“New Work Ethics Develop Since Jobs are
Scarce”
If I can assure you of one thing, it is that this has not happened.
Agree.
If I can assure you of one thing, it is that this has not happened.
Agree.
“Greed is Purged from the System”
I can absolutely assure you that this has not happened yet.
Talk about epic change! I can't imagine this.
I can absolutely assure you that this has not happened yet.
Talk about epic change! I can't imagine this.
“Real Estate Prices Find Bottom”
This has not happened.
By 2012 in residential, 2015 in commercial.
This has not happened.
By 2012 in residential, 2015 in commercial.
“There is a Clean Economic Slate to Build
On”
Not happened yet.
Agree. It may not be a 'good' clean slate.
Not happened yet.
Agree. It may not be a 'good' clean slate.
“Investors are Very Conservative and Risk
Averse”
Again, this has absolutely not occurred.
Agree. Optimism is still abundant.
Again, this has absolutely not occurred.
Agree. Optimism is still abundant.
“Interest Rates and Prices Bottom”
Not happened.
Agree, the ten year bond can see 3.00% again.
Not happened.
Agree, the ten year bond can see 3.00% again.
“A New Economy Begins to Emerge”
Has not happened.
Agree, "Oh Happy Day". I'm getting a vibe.
Has not happened.
Agree, "Oh Happy Day". I'm getting a vibe.
Again, we aren’t there yet.
Agree, "Oh Happy Day". I have to sing and clap to this timeless song.