Monday, August 2, 2010

Market Data & Monthly Charts: Week Ending July 30, 2010

Below the "Read More" are updates of the charts last posted on June 28.
 
Market Index 2009 Close 7/30 Close Week Change Simple YTD %
Dow Industrials Avg 10428.05 10,465.94 0.40% 0.36%
S&P 500 1115.1 1,101.60 -0.10% -1.23%
Fed Funds Rate 0.25% 0.25% 0% 0%
10 yr T-bond Yld 3.85% 2.91% -0.08% -0.94%
5 yr T-note Yld
1.60% -0.13%
5 yr infl adj Note
0.10% -0.20%
Implied 5 yr Inflation %
1.50% 0.07%
2 yr T-note Yld 1.14% 0.58% 0.00% -0.56%
2-10 Yr Slope 2.70% 2.33% -0.08% -0.37%
90 day T-bill Yld
0.14% -0.01%
Gold ($/oz) $1,096.95 $1,183.90 -0.33% 7.93%
WTI Oil ($/brl) $79.36 $78.95 -0.04% -0.52%
VIX "Worry Index" 21.68 23.5 0.13% 8.39%





Credit Spreads
7/30 Close Week Change
Inv Grade Credit Idx
4.48% -0.10%
Low Grade Credit Idx
8.44% -0.16%
Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx
104 -3.70%
Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx
148 -3.90%
 
The following charts provide a longer term perspective for me of the daily charts illustrated in the left column.
The gold chart shows a decline in price during July of nearly 8%, peak to bottom. It also shows a rising 200 day SMA. RSI shows a slightly oversold level and MACD is indicating an oversold trend. In July, gold took a breather. Can it turn back to its advance. I'll watch the dollar and listen for talk about more quantitative easing.

 
Next, look at oil. The oil chart shows a increase in price during July of nearly 11%. It also shows a declining 200 day SMA. RSI shows a slightly overbought level and MACD is indicating an overbought trend. In July, oil got a little more expensive in search of a price reflecting supply vs demand metrics. In the US, refinery output is at the 12 month trend average and prices are too.
 

 
The US Dollar per Australian dollar chart shows AUD strengthening in price during July of 8%. It also shows a flat 200 day SMA. RSI shows a slightly overbought level and MACD is indicating an overbought trend. In July, it got a little more expensive to spend US dollars in Australia. Australia is a major exporter of commodities to China, so the AUD exchange rate is much more of a concern there. This currency is one that reflects global commodity prices.

 
 
The US Dollar per Canadian dollar chart shows CAD weakening in price during July of 3%. It also shows a up to flat 200 day SMA. RSI and MACD both indicating a fair value, between over bought and over sold. In July, it got just a little less expensive to spend US dollars in Canada. Canada is a major exporter of commodities to the US.
 

 
The US Dollar per Euro chart shows a slight weakening in EOD price during July of less than 1%. It also shows a weakening 200 day SMA. RSI and MACD both indicating over bought value. In July, it got just a little less expensive to spend US dollars in Europe. Europe is a major trading partner and travel destination to the US.


 
The US Dollar per Yen chart shows a slight weakening in Yen price during July of less than 1%. It also shows a strengthening 200 day SMA. RSI and MACD both indicating over bought value. In July, it got just a little less expensive to spend US dollars in Japan. Japan is a major trading partner and travel destination to the US.


The VIX chart illustrates the recent trend of the "Worry Index". A look at the fluctuation of fear about advancing stock market prices. July saw the index fall to the 200 day SMA level. A relatively elevated level but more pleasant than we experienced in May and June.




And finally, a look at interest rate trends, beginning with a graph from the St Louis Fed illustrating yields for the 3 mos, 2 Yr, 5 Yr and 10 Yr Treasuries.


Following is a graph from the St Louis Fed illustrating yields for the 5 yr Note and the 5 Yr Treasury Inflation Protected Security.


Following is a graph from the St Louis Fed illustrating yields for Moody's rated corporate debt of Aaa and Baa.