Monday, March 26, 2012

Market Data: Week Ending March 23, 2012


Market Index 12/30/   2011 3/23/     2012 Week Change Simple YTD %
Dow Industrials Avg 12,217.56 13,080.70 -1.15% 7.06%
S&P 500 1,257.60 1,397.11 -0.50% 11.09%
Fed Funds Rate 0.04% 0.15% 0.00% 275.00%
10 yr T-note Yld 1.88% 2.23% -0.06% 18.62%
5 yr T-note Yld 0.83% 1.08% -0.03% 30.12%
5 yr TIPS - 'Real' Yld -0.89% -1.22% 0.05% -37.08%
Implied 5 yr Inflation % 1.72% 2.30% -0.08% 33.72%
2 yr T-note Yld 0.24% 0.35% -0.01% 45.83%
2-10 Yr Slope 1.64% 1.88% -0.05% 14.63%
90 day T-bill Yld 0.01% 0.07% -0.01% 600.00%
Gold ($/oz) $1,566.80 $1,662.40 $6.60 6.10%
WTI Oil ($/brl) $98.83 $106.87 -$0.19 8.14%
VIX "Worry Index" 23.4 14.82 0.35 -36.67%





Credit Spreads 12/30/   2011 3/23/     2012 Week Change Simple YTD %
Inv Grade Credit Idx 4.63% 3.92% -0.02% -15.33%
Low Grade Credit Idx 8.86% 7.13% 0.12% -19.53%
Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx 120 90 0.00% -25.00%
Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx 247 179 1.70% -27.53%
Low Grade to 10 yr T-Note Spread 698 490 3.81% -29.80%

Monday, March 19, 2012

Market Data: Week Ending March 16, 2012


Market Index 12/30/   2011 3/16/     2012 Week Change Simple YTD %
Dow Industrials Avg 12,217.56 13,232.62 2.40% 8.31%
S&P 500 1,257.60 1,404.17 2.43% 11.65%
Fed Funds Rate 0.04% 0.15% 0.02% 275.00%
10 yr T-note Yld 1.88% 2.29% 0.26% 21.81%
5 yr T-note Yld 0.83% 1.11% 0.22% 33.73%
5 yr TIPS - 'Real' Yld -0.89% -1.27% 0.15% -42.70%
Implied 5 yr Inflation % 1.72% 2.38% 0.07% 38.37%
2 yr T-note Yld 0.24% 0.36% 0.04% 50.00%
2-10 Yr Slope 1.64% 1.93% 0.22% 17.68%
90 day T-bill Yld 0.01% 0.08% 0.00% 700.00%
Gold ($/oz) $1,566.80 $1,655.80 -$55.70 5.68%
WTI Oil ($/brl) $98.83 $107.06 -$0.34 8.33%
VIX "Worry Index" 23.4 14.47 -2.64 -38.16%





Credit Spreads 12/30/   2011 3/16/     2012 Week Change Simple YTD %
Inv Grade Credit Idx 4.63% 3.94% 0.11% -14.90%
Low Grade Credit Idx 8.86% 7.01% 0.00% -20.88%
Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx 120 90 -6.25% -25.00%
Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx 247 176 -4.86% -28.74%
Low Grade to 10 yr T-Note Spread 698 472 -5.22% -32.38%

Saturday, March 17, 2012

The Primary Dealer System is Deadly

Below is the entire text of an article I found on Zero Hedge. Here is a link to the post on ZH. I want to capture this article for future reference because it does a good job of describing the Primary Dealer system which is a giant financial squid that has its grip on the throat of the governments around the world and has supported financial corruption in the developed economies in the world. No editorial changes, it is copied as published at ZH.

"Yesterday I noted that the “addict/ dealer” metaphor for the Fed’s intervention in the markets was in fact not accurate and that the Fed’s actions would be more appropriately described as permitted cancerous beliefs to spread throughout the financial system, thereby killing Democratic Capitalism which is the basis of the capital markets.

Today I’m going to explain what the “final outcome” for this process will be. The short version is what happens to a cancer patient who allows the disease to spread unchecked (death).

In the case of the Fed’s actions we will see a similar “death” of Democratic Capitalism and the subsequent death of the capital markets. I am, of course, talking in metaphors here: the world will not end, and commerce and business will continue, but the form of capital markets and Capitalism we are experiencing today will cease to exist as the Fed’s policies result in the market and economy eventually collapsing in such a fashion that what follows will bear little resemblance to that which we are experiencing now.

The focus of this “death” will not be stocks, but bonds, particularly sovereign bonds: the asset class against which all monetary policy and investment theory has been based for the last 80+ years.

Indeed, basic financial theory has proposed that sovereign bonds are essentially the only true “risk-free” investment in the world. While history shows this theory to be false (sovereign defaults have occurred throughout the 20th century) this has been the basic tenant for all investment models and indeed the financial system at large going back for 80 some odd years.

The reason for this is that the Treasury (US sovereign bond) market is the basis of the entire monetary system in the US and the Global financial system in general. Indeed, US Treasuries are the senior most assets on the Primary Dealers’ (world’s largest banks) balance sheets. To understand why this is as well as why the Fed’s policies will ultimately destroy this system, you first need to understand the Primary Dealer system that is the basis for the US banking system at large.

If you’re unfamiliar with the Primary Dealers, these are the 18 banks at the top of the US private banking system. They’re in charge of handling US Treasury Debt auctions and as such they have unprecedented access to US debt both in terms of pricing and monetary control.

The Primary Dealers are:

  1. Bank of America
  2. Barclays Capital Inc.
  3. BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
  4. Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
  5. Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
  6. Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
  7. Daiwa Securities America Inc.
  8. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
  9. Goldman, Sachs & Co.
  10. HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
  11. J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
  12. Jefferies & Company Inc.
  13. Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
  14. Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
  15. Nomura Securities International Inc.
  16. RBC Capital Markets
  17. RBS Securities Inc.
  18. UBS Securities LLC.

Monday, March 12, 2012

Market Data: Week Ending March 9, 2012


Market Index 12/30/   2011 3/9/       2012 Week Change Simple YTD %
Dow Industrials Avg 12,217.56 12,922.02 -0.43% 5.77%
S&P 500 1,257.60 1,370.87 0.09% 9.01%
Fed Funds Rate 0.04% 0.13% 0.01% 225.00%
10 yr T-note Yld 1.88% 2.03% 0.06% 7.98%
5 yr T-note Yld 0.83% 0.89% 0.05% 7.23%
5 yr TIPS - 'Real' Yld -0.89% -1.42% -0.02% -59.55%
Implied 5 yr Inflation % 1.72% 2.31% 0.07% 34.30%
2 yr T-note Yld 0.24% 0.32% 0.05% 33.33%
2-10 Yr Slope 1.64% 1.71% 0.01% 4.27%
90 day T-bill Yld 0.01% 0.08% 0.02% 700.00%
Gold ($/oz) $1,566.80 $1,711.50 $1.70 9.24%
WTI Oil ($/brl) $98.83 $107.40 $0.70 8.67%
VIX "Worry Index" 23.4 17.11 -0.18 -26.88%





Credit Spreads 12/30/   2011 3/9/       2012 Week Change Simple YTD %
Inv Grade Credit Idx 4.63% 3.83% 0.09% -17.28%
Low Grade Credit Idx 8.86% 7.01% 0.13% -20.88%
Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx 120 96 3.23% -20.00%
Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx 247 185 0.54% -25.10%
Low Grade to 10 yr T-Note Spread 698 498 1.43% -28.65%

Monday, March 5, 2012

Market Data & Graphs: Week Ending March 2, 2012


Market Index 12/30/   2011 3/2/       2012 Week Change Simple YTD %
Dow Industrials Avg 12,217.56 12,977.60 -0.04% 6.22%
S&P 500 1,257.60 1,369.63 0.28% 8.91%
Fed Funds Rate 0.04% 0.12% 0.01% 200.00%
10 yr T-note Yld 1.88% 1.97% 0.00% 4.79%
5 yr T-note Yld 0.83% 0.84% -0.05% 1.20%
5 yr TIPS - 'Real' Yld -0.89% -1.40% 0.03% -57.30%
Implied 5 yr Inflation % 1.72% 2.24% -0.08% 30.23%
2 yr T-note Yld 0.24% 0.27% -0.03% 12.50%
2-10 Yr Slope 1.64% 1.70% 0.03% 3.66%
90 day T-bill Yld 0.01% 0.06% -0.04% 500.00%
Gold ($/oz) $1,566.80 $1,709.80 -$63.80 9.13%
WTI Oil ($/brl) $98.83 $106.70 -$2.80 7.96%
VIX "Worry Index" 23.4 17.29 -0.02 -26.11%





Credit Spreads 12/30/   2011 3/2/       2012 Week Change Simple YTD %
Inv Grade Credit Idx 4.63% 3.74% -0.52% -19.22%
Low Grade Credit Idx 8.86% 6.88% -0.23% -22.35%
Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx 120 93 -4.12% -22.50%
Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx 247 184 -5.15% -25.51%
Low Grade to 10 yr T-Note Spread 698 491 -4.47% -29.66%