Monday, August 30, 2010

BEA NEWS: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2010

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today:  
Personal income increased $30.0 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $17.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $44.1 billion, or 0.4 percent. 
The full text of the release on BEA's Web site can be found at
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm


U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · 1441 L Street NW · Washington DC 20230 · 202-606-9900

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Market Data & Monthly Charts: Week Ending August 27, 2010


Market Index 2009 Close 8/27 Close Week Change Simple YTD %
Dow Industrials Avg 10428.05 10,150.65 -0.62% -2.66%
S&P 500 1115.1 1,064.59 -0.66% -4.74%
Fed Funds Rate 0.25% 0.25% 0% 0%
10 yr T-bond Yld 3.85% 2.64% 0.03% -1.21%
5 yr T-note Yld
1.49% 0.04%
5 yr infl adj Note
0.12% -0.02%
Implied 5 yr Inflation %
1.37% 0.06%
2 yr T-note Yld 1.14% 0.55% 0.06% -0.59%
2-10 Yr Slope 2.70% 2.09% -0.03% -0.61%
90 day T-bill Yld
0.14% -0.01%
Gold ($/oz) $1,096.95 $1,237.90 0.74% 12.85%
WTI Oil ($/brl) $79.36 $75.17 1.83% -5.28%
VIX "Worry Index" 21.68 24.45 -4.08% 12.78%





Credit Spreads
8/27 Close Week Change
Inv Grade Credit Idx
4.39% 0.06%
Low Grade Credit Idx
8.52% 0.04%
Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx
115 5.50%
Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx
166 5.06%

Friday, August 27, 2010

BEA News: GDP, 2nd Qtr 2010 (second estimate), and Corporate Profits

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today:
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent.
The full text of the release on BEA's Web site can be found at
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm



U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · 1441 L Street NW · Washington DC 20230 · 202-606-9900

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Bullish or Bearish?

This is such an important and difficult discussion topic. A lot of net worth is at risk to a bear market mauling. Saving it from the potential value destruction depends on having a plan or at least having a clear idea of what market orientation is reflected in the asset allocation strategy at work now. Is it a bull market strategy or a bear market one? Having a position provides a base of information. My observations from talks with peers and industry colleagues is that many are paralyzed bulls and remaining at risk to the bear. There is nothing bad with being a bull or a bear. Losing money is what is bad and that is what I'm concerned about. If this period is recognized as a secular bear market period, which many call it now, losing money will be the outcome for those who could not get comfortable zipping on a bear coat for a while.

Here are a pair of perspectives to define the distinction between the bullish and bearish economic outlook, mostly measured by the stock market. Bob Doll, who is paid to be a bull, represents his investment manufacturing employer. The bear is David Rosenberg. His employer is a wealth management firm in Canada where he is chief economist, a position he held previously at Merrill Lynch. He should be expected to walk his talk. This interview was conducted back in March. After the video clip, there are some graphs that try to look at the economy from the positions taken by Doll and Rosenberg to examine what has changed compared with their expectations. They have not changed their market outlooks since March. One of them should, which one?

Monday, August 23, 2010

Market Data: Week Ending August 20, 2010


Market Index 2009 Close 8/20 Close Week Change Simple YTD %
Dow Industrials Avg 10428.05 10,213.62 -0.87% -2.06%
S&P 500 1115.1 1,071.69 -0.70% -4.05%
Fed Funds Rate 0.25% 0.25% 0% 0%
10 yr T-bond Yld 3.85% 2.61% -0.06% -1.24%
5 yr T-note Yld
1.45% 0.00%
5 yr infl adj Note
0.14% 0.08%
Implied 5 yr Inflation %
1.31% -0.08%
2 yr T-note Yld 1.14% 0.49% -0.04% -0.65%
2-10 Yr Slope 2.70% 2.12% -0.02% -0.58%
90 day T-bill Yld
0.15% 0.00%
Gold ($/oz) $1,096.95 $1,228.80 0.99% 12.02%
WTI Oil ($/brl) $79.36 $73.82 -2.08% -6.98%
VIX "Worry Index" 21.68 25.49 -2.86% 17.57%





Credit Spreads
8/20 Close Week Change
Inv Grade Credit Idx
4.33% -0.09%
Low Grade Credit Idx
8.48% 0.01%
Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx
109 0.00%
Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx
158 1.94%