| Market Index | 12/30 /2011 | 1/20 /2012 | Week Change | Simple YTD % |
| Dow Industrials Avg | 12,217.56 | 12,720.48 | 2.40% | 4.12% |
| S&P 500 | 1,257.60 | 1,315.38 | 2.04% | 4.59% |
| Fed Funds Rate | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 100.00% |
| 10 yr T-note Yld | 1.88% | 2.02% | 0.16% | 7.45% |
| 5 yr T-note Yld | 0.83% | 0.89% | 0.10% | 7.23% |
| 5 yr TIPS - 'Real' Yld | -0.89% | -1.00% | 0.02% | -12.36% |
| Implied 5 yr Inflation % | 1.72% | 1.89% | 0.08% | 9.88% |
| 2 yr T-note Yld | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 2-10 Yr Slope | 1.64% | 1.78% | 0.14% | 8.54% |
| 90 day T-bill Yld | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 300.00% |
| Gold ($/oz) | $1,566.80 | $1,664.00 | $33.20 | 6.20% |
| WTI Oil ($/brl) | $98.83 | $98.33 | -$0.37 | -0.51% |
| VIX "Worry Index" | 23.4 | 18.28 | -2.63 | -21.88% |
| Credit Spreads | 12/30 /2011 | 1/20 /2012 | Week Change | Simple YTD % |
| Inv Grade Credit Idx | 4.63% | 4.50% | -0.01% | -2.81% |
| Low Grade Credit Idx | 8.86% | 8.05% | -0.07% | -9.14% |
| Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx | 120 | 108 | -6.09% | -10.00% |
| Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx | 247 | 227 | -2.16% | -8.10% |
| Low Grade to 10 yr T-Note Spread | 698 | 603 | -3.67% | -13.61% |
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Market Data: Week Ending January 20, 2012
Monday, January 16, 2012
Market Data: Week Ending January 13, 2012
| Market Index | 12/30 /2011 | 1/13 /2012 | Week Change | Simple YTD % |
| Dow Industrials Avg | 12,217.56 | 12,422.10 | 0.51% | 1.67% |
| S&P 500 | 1,257.60 | 1,289.09 | 0.88% | 2.50% |
| Fed Funds Rate | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 75.00% |
| 10 yr T-note Yld | 1.88% | 1.86% | -0.10% | -1.06% |
| 5 yr T-note Yld | 0.83% | 0.79% | -0.06% | -4.82% |
| 5 yr TIPS - 'Real' Yld | -0.89% | -1.02% | -0.03% | -14.61% |
| Implied 5 yr Inflation % | 1.72% | 1.81% | -0.03% | 5.23% |
| 2 yr T-note Yld | 0.24% | 0.22% | -0.04% | -8.33% |
| 2-10 Yr Slope | 1.64% | 1.64% | -0.06% | 0.00% |
| 90 day T-bill Yld | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 100.00% |
| Gold ($/oz) | $1,566.80 | $1,630.80 | $14.00 | 4.08% |
| WTI Oil ($/brl) | $98.83 | $98.70 | -$2.86 | -0.13% |
| VIX "Worry Index" | 23.4 | 20.91 | 0.28 | -10.64% |
| Credit Spreads | 12/30 /2011 | 1/13 /2012 | Week Change | Simple YTD % |
| Inv Grade Credit Idx | 4.63% | 4.51% | -0.12% | -2.59% |
| Low Grade Credit Idx | 8.86% | 8.12% | -0.08% | -8.35% |
| Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx | 120 | 115 | -4.17% | -4.17% |
| Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx | 247 | 232 | -4.13% | -6.07% |
| Low Grade to 10 yr T-Note Spread | 698 | 626 | 0.32% | -10.32% |
Monday, January 9, 2012
Market Data: Week Ending January 6, 2012
| Market Index | 12/30/2011 | 1/6/2012 | Week Change | Simple YTD % |
| Dow Industrials Avg | 12,217.56 | 12,359.02 | 1.16% | 1.16% |
| S&P 500 | 1,257.60 | 1,277.81 | 1.61% | 1.61% |
| Fed Funds Rate | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.03% | 75.00% |
| 10 yr T-note Yld | 1.88% | 1.96% | 0.08% | 4.26% |
| 5 yr T-note Yld | 0.83% | 0.85% | 0.02% | 2.41% |
| 5 yr TIPS - 'Real' Yld | -0.89% | -0.99% | -0.10% | -11.24% |
| Implied 5 yr Inflation % | 1.72% | 1.84% | 0.12% | 6.98% |
| 2 yr T-note Yld | 0.24% | 0.26% | 0.02% | 8.33% |
| 2-10 Yr Slope | 1.64% | 1.70% | 0.06% | 3.66% |
| 90 day T-bill Yld | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Gold ($/oz) | $1,566.80 | $1,616.80 | $50.00 | 3.19% |
| WTI Oil ($/brl) | $98.83 | $101.56 | $2.73 | 2.76% |
| VIX "Worry Index" | 23.4 | 20.63 | -2.77 | -11.84% |
| Credit Spreads | 12/30/2011 | 1/6/2012 | Week Change | Simple YTD % |
| Inv Grade Credit Idx | 4.63% | 4.63% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Low Grade Credit Idx | 8.86% | 8.20% | -0.66% | -7.45% |
| Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx | 120 | 120 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx | 247 | 242 | -2.02% | -2.02% |
| Low Grade to 10 yr T-Note Spread | 698 | 624 | -10.60% | -10.60% |
Thursday, January 5, 2012
The Commodity Story Update: Bull Horns or Bear Tracks
Commodities are used in the production of economic activity around the
world, so a review of the markets that are sensitive to commodities helps to monitor the condition of important pieces in the global
economy. Federal
Reserve policy can influence prices of commodities, such as the price
inflation observed in 2011, created by excess liquidity (monetary policy) finding
value in commodities.
It's obvious that China has used their tremendous industrial and manufacturing capacity to increase employment and sustain the mandated GDP target of the government. The following comment, "Growth in China, the biggest user of everything from copper to cotton to coal, will slow to 8.5 percent this year, from 9.2 percent in 2011, the mean of 14 estimates shows" comes from a Bloomberg article discussing commodities. China is the largest customer of Australia, Brazil and other economies, including neighbor South Korea. The economy of South Korea provides an indirect window to their primary trade partner, China. The Kospi is a South Korean stock exchange and coincident proxy of economic change in China. It appears that the Kospi was hit hard in the beginning of August when Greece's debt default, and associated threat to the European banking system, became a reality. Prior to and since then, the trend has been slightly positive change.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
Commodity markets are generally priced in US dollars. The dollar strengthened in September, hurting buyers of commodities, a condition that repeated in November and December. If the dollar is strengthening, then commodities will become more expensive and that will be inflationary on prices of goods and services. A sideways trend would provide some unexpected currency stability. A weaker dollar would be welcome relief for commodity buyers and relieve concerns about inflation, as well as supporting prices of many stocks and precious metals. The 10 week moving average (gold line) illustrates a strengthening in the trend. The Fed FOMC is not likely to allow a sustained strengthening move in the dollar index without intervening. What if they do allow it? That will signal risk-off and a move to perceived safety.
It's obvious that China has used their tremendous industrial and manufacturing capacity to increase employment and sustain the mandated GDP target of the government. The following comment, "Growth in China, the biggest user of everything from copper to cotton to coal, will slow to 8.5 percent this year, from 9.2 percent in 2011, the mean of 14 estimates shows" comes from a Bloomberg article discussing commodities. China is the largest customer of Australia, Brazil and other economies, including neighbor South Korea. The economy of South Korea provides an indirect window to their primary trade partner, China. The Kospi is a South Korean stock exchange and coincident proxy of economic change in China. It appears that the Kospi was hit hard in the beginning of August when Greece's debt default, and associated threat to the European banking system, became a reality. Prior to and since then, the trend has been slightly positive change.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
Commodity markets are generally priced in US dollars. The dollar strengthened in September, hurting buyers of commodities, a condition that repeated in November and December. If the dollar is strengthening, then commodities will become more expensive and that will be inflationary on prices of goods and services. A sideways trend would provide some unexpected currency stability. A weaker dollar would be welcome relief for commodity buyers and relieve concerns about inflation, as well as supporting prices of many stocks and precious metals. The 10 week moving average (gold line) illustrates a strengthening in the trend. The Fed FOMC is not likely to allow a sustained strengthening move in the dollar index without intervening. What if they do allow it? That will signal risk-off and a move to perceived safety.
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