Market Data & Graphs: Week Ending February 25, 2011

Market Index	12/31  Close	2/25    Close	Week Change	Simple YTD %
Dow Industrials Avg	11,577.50	12,130.50	-2.10%	4.78%
S&P 500	1,257.64	1,319.88	-1.72%	4.95%
Fed Funds Rate	0.10%	0.15%	0.05%	50.00%
10 yr T-note Yld	3.29%	3.41%	-0.17%	3.65%
5 yr T-note Yld	2.01%	2.16%	-0.11%	7.46%
5 yr TIPS - 'Real' Yld	-0.06%	-0.44%	-0.27%	633.33%
Implied 5 yr Inflation %	2.07%	2.60%	0.16%	25.60%
2 yr T-note Yld	0.59%	0.71%	-0.04%	20.34%
2-10 Yr Slope	2.70%	2.70%	-0.13%	0.00%
90 day T-bill Yld	0.12%	0.12%	0.03%	0.00%
Gold ($/oz)	$1,421.40	$1,409.30	$20.70	-0.85%
WTI Oil ($/brl)	$91.38	$97.88	$11.68	7.11%
VIX "Worry Index"	17.75	19.22	2.79	8.28%
Credit Spreads	12/31  Close	2/25    Close	Week Change	Simple YTD %
Inv Grade Credit Idx	4.78%	4.66%	-0.08%	-2.51%
Low Grade Credit Idx	8.32%	7.83%	0.04%	-5.89%
Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx	85	85	7.59%	0.00%
Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx	131	121	7.08%	-7.63%

10 Most Systemically Risky Financial Organizations

"As part of the US policy response to the global crisis, the Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Act calls for regulators to identify systemically risky financial firms – the sort that took the US financial crisis global. But how to identify these firms remains unclear. Some claim the task is impossible. This column begs to differ and names the 10 most systemically risky financial firms in the US."

The above is a quote from an article on Naked Capitalism that is a great post. It describes a study conducted by four NY University professors to answer the question, what companies are financially risky. This list does not pull the covers back from any secret, it does confirm that there has been little resolution to the problems that conspired, through the systemically connected too-big-to-fail organizations, to cause the financial crisis escalate and ultimately fall onto the backs of the global taxpayers and holders of US Treasury, and other sovereigns, debt.

Here is a chart published in the article linked to above. It includes three more large insurer's which adds credibility for me. That's because insurer's in general are lenders of capital for commercial real estate projects, many of which are non-performing assets.

4Q 2010 and 2010 Annual GDP (second estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010,(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.2 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The small fourth-quarter acceleration in real GDP primarily reflected a sharp downturn in imports, an acceleration in PCE, an upturn in residential fixed investment, and an acceleration in exports that were mostly offset by downturns in private inventory investment and in federal government spending, a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, and a downturn in state and local government spending.

Market Data: Week Ending February 18, 2011

Market Index	12/31  Close	2/18    Close	Week Change	Simple YTD %
Dow Industrials Avg	11,577.50	12,391.20	0.96%	7.03%
S&P 500	1,257.64	1,343.01	1.04%	6.79%
Fed Funds Rate	0.10%	0.10%	-0.06%	0.00%
10 yr T-note Yld	3.29%	3.58%	-0.05%	8.81%
5 yr T-note Yld	2.01%	2.27%	-0.09%	12.94%
5 yr TIPS - 'Real' Yld	-0.06%	-0.17%	-0.25%	183.33%
Implied 5 yr Inflation %	2.07%	2.44%	0.16%	17.87%
2 yr T-note Yld	0.59%	0.75%	-0.08%	27.12%
2-10 Yr Slope	2.70%	2.83%	0.03%	4.81%
90 day T-bill Yld	0.12%	0.09%	-0.02%	-25.00%
Gold ($/oz)	$1,421.40	$1,388.60	$28.20	-2.31%
WTI Oil ($/brl)	$91.38	$86.20	$0.62	-5.67%
VIX "Worry Index"	17.75	16.43	0.74	-7.44%
Credit Spreads	12/31  Close	2/18    Close	Week Change	Simple YTD %
Inv Grade Credit Idx	4.78%	4.74%	-0.03%	-0.84%
Low Grade Credit Idx	8.32%	7.79%	-0.05%	-6.37%
Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx	85	79	-3.66%	-7.06%
Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx	131	113	-2.59%	-13.74%

S&P 500 Priced in Gold

For some perspective on the long-term performance of the stock market, today's chart presents the Dow priced in ounces of gold (i.e. the Dow / gold ratio). For example, it currently takes 8.8 ounces of gold to 'buy the Dow' which is considerably less that the 44.8 ounces it took back in 1999. Priced in gold, the Dow has been in a severe 11-year bear market. Lately, however, the Dow (priced in gold) has stopped declining for long enough to break above its six-year, accelerated downtrend channel.

Market Data: Week Ending February 11, 2011

Market Index	12/31  Close	2/11    Close	Week Change	Simple YTD %
Dow Industrials Avg	11,577.50	12,273.30	0.81%	6.01%
S&P 500	1,257.64	1,329.15	1.39%	5.69%
Fed Funds Rate	0.10%	0.16%	0.00%	60.00%
10 yr T-note Yld	3.29%	3.63%	-0.01%	10.33%
5 yr T-note Yld	2.01%	2.36%	0.10%	17.41%
5 yr TIPS - 'Real' Yld	-0.06%	0.08%	0.20%	-233.33%
Implied 5 yr Inflation %	2.07%	2.28%	-0.10%	10.14%
2 yr T-note Yld	0.59%	0.83%	0.09%	40.68%
2-10 Yr Slope	2.70%	2.80%	-0.10%	3.70%
90 day T-bill Yld	0.12%	0.11%	-0.04%	-8.33%
Gold ($/oz)	$1,421.40	$1,360.40	$11.40	-4.29%
WTI Oil ($/brl)	$91.38	$85.58	-$3.45	-6.35%
VIX "Worry Index"	17.75	15.69	-0.14	-11.61%
Credit Spreads	12/31  Close	2/11    Close	Week Change	Simple YTD %
Inv Grade Credit Idx	4.78%	4.77%	0.00%	-0.21%
Low Grade Credit Idx	8.32%	7.84%	-0.01%	-5.77%
Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx	85	82	1.23%	-3.53%
Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx	131	116	-7.20%	-11.45%

Ten Year Note: Looks Good??

Bloomberg reports on today's auction of the ten year note. "In complete contrast to yesterday's 3-year auction, buyside demand was very strong for today's 10-year auction. Dealers ended up with only 28 percent of the $24 billion offering, well under January's 39 percent. The auction stopped out at 3.665 percent, five basis points below the 1:00 p.m. ET bid. Coverage of 3.23 is up from January's 2.80. Demand for Treasuries is rising following the results."

Peter Boockvar also reported on the auction at the Big Picture blog. "The benchmark 10 yr note auction was very strong as the yield of 3.665% was well below the when issued of 3.70-3.71% and the bid to cover of 3.23 was above the 12 month average of 3.12. Also, indirect bidders took 71.3% of the auction, by far the most since at least 2003 which I can’t explain and thus the dealers took only a modest amount. The Treasury definitely got some help today and it’s likely that the highest yields since May became attractive to buyers and the spread to the 2 yr at near record highs became stretched. The Treasury sells 30 yr paper tomorrow and will also be important."

Market Data: Week Ending February 4, 2011

Market Index	12/31  Close	2/04    Close	Week Change	Simple YTD %
Dow Industrials Avg	11,577.50	12,174.12	2.96%	5.15%
S&P 500	1,257.64	1,310.87	2.71%	4.23%
Fed Funds Rate	0.10%	0.16%	-0.02%	60.00%
10 yr T-note Yld	3.29%	3.64%	0.32%	10.64%
5 yr T-note Yld	2.01%	2.26%	0.35%	12.44%
5 yr TIPS - 'Real' Yld	-0.06%	-0.12%	0.21%	100.00%
Implied 5 yr Inflation %	2.07%	2.38%	0.14%	14.98%
2 yr T-note Yld	0.59%	0.74%	0.20%	25.42%
2-10 Yr Slope	2.70%	2.90%	0.12%	7.41%
90 day T-bill Yld	0.12%	0.15%	0.01%	25.00%
Gold ($/oz)	$1,421.40	$1,349.00	$7.30	-5.09%
WTI Oil ($/brl)	$91.38	$89.03	-$0.31	-2.57%
VIX "Worry Index"	17.75	15.83	-4.21	-10.82%
Credit Spreads	12/31  Close	2/04    Close	Week Change	Simple YTD %
Inv Grade Credit Idx	4.78%	4.77%	0.11%	-0.21%
Low Grade Credit Idx	8.32%	7.85%	-0.08%	-5.65%
Markit CDX Inv Grd Idx	85	81	-2.41%	-4.71%
Markit CDX Mid Grd Idx	131	125	0.81%	-4.58%