People With Jobs Are Losing Them at a Slower Rate

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. Obviously, there is no need for concern of wage inflation for years into the future. Wage deflation and unemployment, are the immediate concerns and so they are on the radar screen. Jobless claims illustrate wage deflation since unemployment benefits are not replacing 100% of employment income.

Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend

Data Source: Haver Analytics

One Eye on the Fed: March CPI Index

The following release from Bloomberg, updates the condition of inflation in the US economy, using data collected and massaged by the Fed and its cohorts. It's the official public information and is useful because most people will use this data to base decisions around, right or wrong. In addition, I am adding in a few charts from the Federal Reserve displaying inflation in different contexts.

Fed inflation hawks got no help this morning as consumer price inflation was essentially nonexistent for March. Overall CPI inflation for March nudged up to 0.1 percent from no change the prior month. The March rise matched the consensus forecast for a 0.1 percent increase. Core CPI inflation, however, eased to no change from up 0.1 percent in March and coming in just under expectations for a 0.1 percent gain. At the headline level, food prices rose moderately while energy costs were flat. The core was held down in part by declines in apparel and recreation and flat housing costs.

The have's and the have not's

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their results for December's unemployment survey. These numbers will be revised a couple of times still. They get data from "household" surveys and from "establishment" surveys. The household survey is where we learn about the people who want to work and are not able to find employment. Here are some comments on the current conditions...

From the BLS
Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-85,000) in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.