It's time to post some economic outlooks from sources not affiliated with mainstream investment companies. The mainstream can be readily identified by their marquis brand names and reputation for being on the speed dials of the Bernanke and Geitner phones. Is it possible that there is someone employed by a high profile employer, who would acknowledge the conflict of interest that employment places them in so that objective analysis is plausible? Yes it is possible, but I am not interested.
Today, I am reading the work of Paul Kasriel, Director of Economic Research at Northern Trust Co. He has posted his economic outlook on Safe Haven and a link to it is here. I find his analysis to be a little more optimistic than many of the opinions I am reading. His forecast, in my opinion, assumes there are not going to be economic shocks during 2010 and that the modest improvements we have noticed during the past few months will be sustained, leading to no improvement in unemployment. So it is not rosy by any means. Here is a sample from his outlook to give you a flavor of his GDP outlook and inflation forecast.