The Long and Winding Road... To "Oh Happy Day"

I've been reading Tim Wood's articles on Financial Sense for a few years. Without a doubt, he can be described as the most devoted Dow Theory technician I know of. Here is a link for more description of Dow Theory as a follow up to the earlier post on it, titled Dow Theory Basics. It is also his current opinion of the stock market trend using his version of Dow Theory analysis. He sometimes includes a bothersome list of financial events that he discovered in a book. This list is a sort of road to hell and it is his belief that we will visit every little point described by the book author. I have no such belief and I am only curious about Dow Theory, but I do want to keep the list in front of me, just because it challenges me to keep my mind open to ideas. It's a way for me to manage the influence of cognitive dissonance. There is some credibility to the idea of events happening in a sequence that can be predicted, but I don't think it can be predicted out further than a few years and have any probability of occurring as predicted. IMHO, the list in Tim Wood's article is going to need ten years to play out. (He mentions a K-wave winter which is described as a long period of global deflation.) I have added my POV in bold type for each point. Anybody else? Make a copy of the list and send me your thoughts in a comment or an eMail. Don't miss the big ending!

Bull, Bear, Secular, Cyclical... Jibber Jabber

Technically speaking... Tim Wood is a market technician who focuses on identification of long-term trends, trying to identify when they will change direction. It seems like an art to me, but he approaches it using a science called Dow Theory. He writes about his observations of trends and does a good job of explaining how he comes to his conclusions. He continues to hold that the stock market began a long-term bear market after reaching the current market high water mark in October of 2007. More technicians say that the secular bear market began with the inflation-adjusted high water mark, reached in 2000. Tim Wood has a description of the length of time he would expect a secular bear market to last, following the peak reached in 2000. He concludes it was scheduled to reach it's low point in 2009, like we saw in March in 2009. That would end the secular bear market, unless you are Tim Wood. When the secular bear market trend begins is important as he explains.