Robert Wenzel's speech at the NY Fed, April 2012

From the Economic Policy Journal;

   Thank you very much for inviting me to speak here at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.

Intellectual discourse is, of course, extraordinarily valuable in reaching truth. In this sense, I welcome the opportunity to discuss my views on the economy and monetary policy and how they may differ with those of you here at the Fed.

That said, I suspect my views are so different from those of you here today that my comments will be a complete failure in convincing you to do what I believe should be done, which is to close down the entire Federal Reserve System

My views, I suspect, differ from beginning to end. From the proper methodology to be used in the science of economics, to the manner in which the macro-economy functions, to the role of the Federal Reserve, and to the accomplishments of the Federal Reserve, I stand here confused as to how you see the world so differently than I do.

I simply do not understand most of the thinking that goes on here at the Fed and I do not understand how this thinking can go on when in my view it smacks up against reality.

James Rickards interviewed by James Turk

James Rickards is talking candidly with James Turk of GoldMoney.com, about economic issues around the world, especially the Euro countries, the US and China. A common thread throughout the interview is the impact on the value and uses of gold. He also speculates freely about what various outcomes might look like as politicians wrestle with ways to create a needed solution and still be reelected. The interview took place during August 2011 and is still relevant.

Author of "When Money Dies" Interviewed by James Turk

Adam Fergusson is interviewed by James Turk of GoldMoney.com. The focus is on Fergusson's understanding of inflation, and then hyperinflation, as researcher and historian of the Weimar Republic or 1920's Germany experience.

If Big Bank in Crisis, Then Precious Metal for Safety

This is an interview of one great mind talking with another. They are James Turk, interviewer, and Eric Sprott, interviewed. This interview took place at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London on, or near, August 5, 2011. This is a segment of a thirty-three minute interview that is worth listening to for the range of topics and candid observations from two marketers of precious metals investments. They focus on metals they represent, silver and gold, and point to the possibility of copper maybe having a role in this movement. Even though they are "talking their book", they earned my respect by providing investment vehicles that represent direct ownership of the metals, something Sprott states in the interview about his fund.

Economic Condition Review: June 2011

The last economic review I did for the blog was in January 2011. At that time conditions for the US economy felt hopeful with corporations getting ready to announce good to great business results and guardedly optimistic business outlook messages. Food and energy inflation were an established factor in the US and the rest of the world. QE2 was adding fuel to inflation and to the prices for most commodities, especially the money hedges, gold and silver. The US$ was weakening, reaching a recent low near 73 (see graph below). A review of the weekly market data for January 14 is linked here. Company share prices elevated for much of the early part of earnings season before hitting a ceiling in mid February and suffering a March pullback in sympathy with Japan's enormous tragedy trio, earthquake, tsunami and nuclear power plant catastrophe's. The US markets recovered to the year-to-date high at the end of May.

Now in June, the world is captivated with concern about the bank and sovereign debt crisis in Greece. The concern is over the terms by which it will be resolved and when. The political forces are at work, the ECB, the IMF, and the US Fed are all applying pressure. The Financial Times describes the situation as "A Defining Moment for Greek Debt". A play on words since the article is about the definitions given to what everyone perceives to be a 'credit event' in Greek sovereign debt, involving credit default swaps. Eurozone forces feel the resolution is to deepen the austerity of the Greeks putting the problem on the back of labor as well as insisting that the government sell prime assets, such as state owned transportation and valuable land assets. Bloomberg describes the situation here. The proposals are being met with resistance from Greek labor unions. It remains to be seen how the government decides what to vote. Will they shun the political force representing the banking/eurozone interests or will they adopt an Iceland type reform to protect their assets from fire sale and force losses on the financial system. If they choose the latter, the potential exists for wide ranging credit related losses for European banks and possibly other money center banks around the world too.

The US Fed has announced they do plan to end QE2 as planned at the end of June. Until then, they are still in the markets supporting asset prices. A widely held view, that I share, is that there will be some form of market manipulation choreographed by the Fed until they get enough political support for the next QE. It will take a good financial scare to move the political will, so this is the time to be patient, waiting to take on risk. John Hussman writes that more QE will be politically aggressive in the face of a discouraged populace and critical global community. In addition, the lack of evidence that QE has been successful would support its abandonment. But the final decision likely revolves around the determination of Fed Chairman Bernanke to maintain the practice.

One Eye on the Euro

Here is a part of an interview dated May 23, 2011 and published in the online Der Spiegel, with Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg and president of the Euro Group. To me, he is disguising his fear about the potential for another financial crisis if there were a technical default by Greece. A default will trigger credit default swap (CDS) claims. It seems that Juncker is acknowledging the danger in his veiled warnings of "the banks in Germany and Europe, would have an enormous problem -- with incalculable consequences for the financial market." and also "we would be letting a genie out of the bottle without knowing in what direction it will be flying." One alternative being discussed and getting traction is not technically a default. It calls for the current debt issuer to offer a voluntary restructuring of their debt with Greece. In other words, the lender says to Greece before you default let's agree on a new debt agreement that keeps you a sovereign nation for a couple more years and prevents a default from igniting a potentially widespread financial crisis. That would accomplish what Greece needs and prevent the world from experiencing another financial crisis in the immediate future.

SPIEGEL: The country's debt burden is so large that even tough austerity programs and loans are not enough to pull it out of the crisis. Why don't you finally admit that Greece is broke?
Juncker: Greece is not broke. That is what the experienced experts with the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank tell us. I am firmly convinced that, in a joint effort, we can lead Greece out of the crisis.
SPIEGEL: The total debt amounts to almost 160 percent of Greece's economic output. With such a debt burden, how is the country ever supposed to make any headway?
Juncker: The United States and Japan also have high debt levels, and yet no one would claim that those countries are bankrupt.
SPIEGEL: But Japan and the United States have their own currencies, which they can devalue, if necessary.
Juncker: That option is not open to Greece -- I'll acknowledge that. Nevertheless, it doesn't mean that the government is powerless. On the contrary, Greece can bolster its competitiveness, and it can pursue a reasonable economic policy and generate more growth.
SPIEGEL: Hope springs eternal.
Juncker: No, I am just considering the alternatives. If Greece were to declare a national bankruptcy tomorrow, the country would have no access to the international financial market for years to come, and its most important creditors, the banks in Germany and Europe, would have an enormous problem -- with incalculable consequences for the financial market.
SPIEGEL: But you exaggerate. The European lenders are in a better position than two years ago, and now many countries have established their own bailout instruments to protect against bank crashes.
Juncker: I would be cautious in that regard. We are still at the epicenter of a global crisis. We are dealing with largely irrational markets, nervous investors and rating agencies whose conclusions don't always make complete sense. I'll stick to my argument: In the case of a national bankruptcy with a subsequent debt restructuring, we would be letting a genie out of the bottle without knowing in which direction it would be flying.

Iceland, one year later

By Chad Thomas and Omar Valdimarsson

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Arni Hallgrimsson lost his job as a public relations consultant when Iceland’s three biggest banks collapsed last year, putting him out of work for the first time since 1980. After a stint cleaning the docks at a whaling station during the summer hunt, he’s unemployed again.

“Nightmares come to an end when you wake up, but this one just goes on and on and on and on,” the 53-year-old father of three said at his home in Reykjavik, Iceland’s capital. “I’ve applied for many jobs that fit my profile. Sometimes I’ve been on the short-list, but eventually not been offered the job.”

A year after the banking crisis brought Iceland to the brink of bankruptcy, the island nation is mired in the deepest recession among advanced economies. The stock market has lost 97 percent of its value, and more than 780 companies have buckled under the weight of foreign currency loans as the krona plunged. Consumers refuse to borrow at Europe’s highest interest rates, and international banks reject requests for new financing.