FOMC Policy Bias 2012 & 2013

This chart is useful for guessing the policy bias of members on the FOMC. It includes not only the members in 2012. It also includes the four new members that will rotate onto the Committee in January 2013. The Chairman (Bernanke) does not get to select who the new members are in each annual rotation because they are predetermined. His primary variable for strategy is the timing of the monetary policy matter he wants to present for vote. Obviously, the policy hawks are outnumbered and therefore not able to impact a vote in either 2012 or 2013 as well as they can impact a discussion.
The following graphic is from the Financial Times Alphaville blog.

James Rickards interviewed by James Turk

James Rickards is talking candidly with James Turk of GoldMoney.com, about economic issues around the world, especially the Euro countries, the US and China. A common thread throughout the interview is the impact on the value and uses of gold. He also speculates freely about what various outcomes might look like as politicians wrestle with ways to create a needed solution and still be reelected. The interview took place during August 2011 and is still relevant.

Author of "When Money Dies" Interviewed by James Turk

Adam Fergusson is interviewed by James Turk of GoldMoney.com. The focus is on Fergusson's understanding of inflation, and then hyperinflation, as researcher and historian of the Weimar Republic or 1920's Germany experience.

If Big Bank in Crisis, Then Precious Metal for Safety

This is an interview of one great mind talking with another. They are James Turk, interviewer, and Eric Sprott, interviewed. This interview took place at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London on, or near, August 5, 2011. This is a segment of a thirty-three minute interview that is worth listening to for the range of topics and candid observations from two marketers of precious metals investments. They focus on metals they represent, silver and gold, and point to the possibility of copper maybe having a role in this movement. Even though they are "talking their book", they earned my respect by providing investment vehicles that represent direct ownership of the metals, something Sprott states in the interview about his fund.

One Eye on The Fed: 'Dual Mandate' is Camouflage

Today New York Fed President William Dudley spoke about the condition of the US economy. His record reflects that of a supporter of current Fed policy. Here is a brief statement from his speech that illustrates his overall sentiment about the economy and the need for the Fed to continue its money printing and intervention in certain asset markets.

"On the activity side, a wide range of indicators show a broadening and strengthening of demand by households and production by firms. For example, on the demand side, after an unusually deep retrenchment during the recession, consumer spending has begun to recover, and that recovery strengthened considerably in the final months of 2010. Not surprisingly, businesses' orders and production are following suit.
These factors led to a 3.1 percent growth rate in our most comprehensive measure of national output (real, or inflation-adjusted, gross domestic product or GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2010. Growth for the first quarter looks likely to be similar, near 3 percent. In my view, the revival in demand and production—while not as strong as desired—suggests that we may be much closer to establishing a virtuous circle that will support stronger growth. What I have in mind is a cycle in which rising household and business demand generate more rapid income and employment growth, which in turn bolsters confidence and leads to further increases in spending. This is why we upgraded our assessment of the economy at last month's FOMC meeting, noting the economy is now on a "firmer footing". The major missing piece of the puzzle has been the absence of strong payroll job growth. We will need to see sustained strong employment growth in order to be certain that this virtuous circle has become firmly established.
With respect to the labor market, we have seen some conflicting signals. On one hand, the unemployment rate has fallen sharply over the past four months, dropping to 8.8 percent from 9.8 percent in November. On the other hand, payroll employment gains have been relatively modest."

Dudley's message is that there is still work to be done by the Fed before he can feel assured of an economy that will sustain itself in terms of employment growth and consumer spending growth (maybe GDP above 3.0). This is camouflage to the real purpose of QE.

Let's Print Money, Here's How.

Axel Merk writes today about the issues in the currency markets and Greece in particular. His article today is fascinating, telling his story of what has conspired to create the problem Greece finds itself in, without doing anything differently from what it has always done. The title of his article is Greece - From Hard Money to Fool's Gold. In this article he also describes very simply a money printing scheme that helped me better understand this transaction. Turns out it is more of a concept or virtual transaction. Here is his description...